When Should Michigan Ease Social Distancing? Let’s Talk Numbers
I'm not gonna lie. I'm not scared. I'm cautious. I don't want to die. I don't want to catch this thing. I don't want it for me or my family nor you and your family. It's nasty business and you can ask any healthcare worker on the front lines about their days and nights. The cases and bodies.
I am not in a rush to get back out there so quickly. And I know. The economy, jobs, we gotta get back to work, small businesses. I get it. I truly do. But I am also a people and lives and your mental health over trying to rush back over dollars. I'm not getting political. I ain't blaming anyone. I'm just not ready to move so quickly or get back out there and back at it.
I also don't think people are taking it serious enough. I've seen people complaining about being cooped up and having to wear a mask to go into a store. And the numbers aren't real and this thing isn't real and...
The news cycle and everything is oppressive. And I work in the media. I'm screaming inside, "WHY ARE Y'ALL RUSHING TO RUN OUT OUT THERE AND POSSIBLY DIE?!?"
I worry about someone giving it to my mom. About me getting it from someone out there and passing it on to my mom or dad. And losing them to this.
Even when they start relaxing stuff and saying we can start moving back to whatever normal is, I'm gonna still hunker down and let others go first to see if it's safe. Sorry. If you wanna get out there so bad and so fast, I'll let you go. I won't stand in your way. And I'll watch.
THE BRAINS (University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation or IHME) SAY THIS.
What is the maximum number of new infections that states could handle with their current testing and contact tracing capacity?
IHME's answer: 1 new infection per million people in a given state.
Modelers from the University of Washington are estimating when COVID-19 infections fall below one case per 1 million people. At that point, easing social distancing restrictions may be possible with containment strategies that include testing, contact tracing, isolation and limiting sizes of gatherings. (NPR)
And according to the model that these folks built and the criteria they set forth for dates to ease social distancing, they said they didn't think very many states were close.
For a chart of the projected date for each state, scroll below or click here.
Data as of April 27
|MAY 10||West Virginia|
|MAY 13||North Carolina|
|MAY 18||Montana, New Hampshire|
|MAY 19||Idaho, Maine|
|MAY 20||California, Delaware|
|MAY 21||Illinois, Michigan|
|MAY 22||Alabama, Indiana|
|MAY 23||Nevada, Wisconsin|
|MAY 27||District of Columbia, Maryland, Virginia|
|MAY 28||New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania|
|MAY 31||Oregon, Wyoming|
|JUNE 1||Colorado, Mississippi|
|JUNE 3||New Mexico|
|JUNE 13||South Carolina|
|JUNE 17||Connecticut, Missouri|
|JUNE 21||Florida, Massachusetts, Rhode Island|
|JUNE 28||Arkansas, Georgia|
|JULY 2||South Dakota|
|JULY 20||North Dakota|
Projections for Alaska and Oklahoma are unavailable in the latest data update.
Credit: Stephanie Adeline/NPR